Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018)
Stastny and Lehner (2018) reported a study comparing the forecast accuracy of a US intelligence community prediction market (ICPM) to traditionally produced intelligence reports. Five analysts unaffiliated with the intelligence reports imputed forecasts from the reports after stating their personal...
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| Auteur principal: | |
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| Format: | Artigo |
| Langue: | Inglês |
| Publié: |
Cambridge University Press
2019-05-01
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| Collection: | Judgment and Decision Making |
| Sujets: | |
| Accès en ligne: | http://journal.sjdm.org/19/190417/jdm190417.pdf |
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