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A response to Mandel’s (2019) commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018)

Stastny and Lehner (2018) compared the accuracy of forecasts in an intelligence community prediction market to comparable forecasts in analysis reports prepared by groups of professional intelligence analysts. To obtain quantitative probabilities from the analysis reports experienced analysts were a...

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Detalles Bibliográficos
Autores principales: Paul Lehner, Bradley Stastny
Formato: Artigo
Lenguaje:Inglês
Publicado: Cambridge University Press 2019-09-01
Colección:Judgment and Decision Making
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Acceso en línea:http://journal.sjdm.org/19/190711b/jdm190711b.pdf
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