Too soon to tell if the US intelligence community prediction market is more accurate than intelligence reports: Commentary on Stastny and Lehner (2018)

Stastny and Lehner (2018) reported a study comparing the forecast accuracy of a US intelligence community prediction market (ICPM) to traditionally produced intelligence reports. Five analysts unaffiliated with the intelligence reports imputed forecasts from the reports after stating their personal...

Täydet tiedot

Bibliografiset tiedot

Päätekijä:	David R. Mandel
Aineistotyyppi:	Artigo
Kieli:	Inglês
Julkaistu:	Cambridge University Press 2019-05-01
Sarja:	Judgment and Decision Making
Aiheet:	intelligence analysis forecasting accuracy prediction markets validityNAKeywords
Linkit:	http://journal.sjdm.org/19/190417/jdm190417.pdf
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