Persistent Chaos of Measles Epidemics in the Prevaccination United States Caused by a Small Change in Seasonal Transmission Patterns

Epidemics of infectious diseases often occur in predictable limit cycles. Theory suggests these cycles can be disrupted by high amplitude seasonal fluctuations in transmission rates, resulting in deterministic chaos. However, persistent deterministic chaos has never been observed, in part because su...

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Udgivet i:PLoS Comput Biol
Main Authors: Dalziel, Benjamin D., Bjørnstad, Ottar N., van Panhuis, Willem G., Burke, Donald S., Metcalf, C. Jessica E., Grenfell, Bryan T.
Format: Artigo
Sprog:Inglês
Udgivet: Public Library of Science 2016
Fag:
Research Article
Online adgang:https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC4741526/
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/26845437
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.govhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1004655
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