A new method for determining the optimal lagged ensemble
Abstract We propose a general methodology for determining the lagged ensemble that minimizes the mean square forecast error. The MSE of a lagged ensemble is shown to depend only on a quantity called the cross‐lead error covariance matrix, which can be estimated from a short hindcast data set and par...
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| Autors principals: | , , , |
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| Format: | Artigo |
| Idioma: | Inglês |
| Publicat: |
American Geophysical Union (AGU)
2017-03-01
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| Col·lecció: | Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems |
| Matèries: | |
| Accés en línia: | https://doi.org/10.1002/2016MS000838 |
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