Developing expert political judgment: The impact of training and practice on judgmental accuracy in geopolitical forecasting tournaments

The heuristics-and-biases research program highlights reasons for expecting people to be poor intuitive forecasters. This article tests the power of a cognitive-debiasing training module (“CHAMPS KNOW”) to improve probability judgments in a four-year series of geopolitical forecasting tournaments sp...

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Autors principals:	Welton Chang, Eva Chen, Barbara Mellers, Philip Tetlock
Format:	Artigo
Idioma:	Inglês
Publicat:	Cambridge University Press 2016-09-01
Col·lecció:	Judgment and Decision Making
Matèries:	forecasting probability judgment training practice cognitive debiasing
Accés en línia:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500004599/type/journal_article
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