Short-term forecast in the early stage of the COVID-19 outbreak in Italy. Application of a weighted and cumulative average daily growth rate to an exponential decay model

To estimate the size of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak in the early stage in Italy, this paper introduces the cumulated and weighted average daily growth rate (WR) to evaluate an epidemic curve. On the basis of an exponential decay model (EDM), we provide estimations of the WR in four-tim...

Disgrifiad llawn

Wedi'i Gadw mewn:
Manylion Llyfryddiaeth
Cyhoeddwyd yn:Infect Dis Model
Prif Awduron: Bartolomeo, Nicola, Trerotoli, Paolo, Serio, Gabriella
Fformat: Artigo
Iaith:Inglês
Cyhoeddwyd: KeAi Publishing 2020
Pynciau:
Special issue on Modelling and Forecasting the 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) Transmission; Edited by Prof. Carlos Castillo-Chavez, Prof. Gerardo Chowell-Puente, Prof. Ping Yan, Prof. Jianhong Wu
Mynediad Ar-lein:https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC7773318/
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/33398249
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.govhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.idm.2020.12.007
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