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Robust forecast aggregation
Bayesian experts who are exposed to different evidence often make contradictory probabilistic forecasts. An aggregator, ignorant of the underlying model, uses this to calculate his or her own forecast. We use the notions of scoring rules and regret to propose a natural way to evaluate an aggregation...
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| Udgivet i: | Proc Natl Acad Sci U S A |
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| Main Authors: | , , |
| Format: | Artigo |
| Sprog: | Inglês |
| Udgivet: |
National Academy of Sciences
2018
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| Fag: | |
| Online adgang: | https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC6310790/ https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/30538197 https://ncbi.nlm.nih.govhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1813934115 |
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