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Monthly ENSO Forecast Skill and Lagged Ensemble Size

The mean square error (MSE) of a lagged ensemble of monthly forecasts of the Niño 3.4 index from the Climate Forecast System (CFSv2) is examined with respect to ensemble size and configuration. Although the real‐time forecast is initialized 4 times per day, it is possible to infer the MSE for arbitr...

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Publicado en:J Adv Model Earth Syst
Main Authors: Trenary, L., DelSole, T., Tippett, M.K., Pegion, K.
Formato: Artigo
Idioma:Inglês
Publicado: John Wiley and Sons Inc. 2018
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Acceso en liña:https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5993225/
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/29937973
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.govhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1002/2017MS001204
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