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Model-free forecasting outperforms the correct mechanistic model for simulated and experimental data

Accurate predictions of species abundance remain one of the most vexing challenges in ecology. This observation is perhaps unsurprising, because population dynamics are often strongly forced and highly nonlinear. Recently, however, numerous statistical techniques have been proposed for fitting highl...

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Detalhes bibliográficos
Main Authors: Perretti, Charles T., Munch, Stephan B., Sugihara, George
Formato: Artigo
Idioma:Inglês
Publicado em: National Academy of Sciences 2013
Assuntos:
Acesso em linha:https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC3612644/
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pubmed/23440207
https://ncbi.nlm.nih.govhttp://dx.doi.org/10.1073/pnas.1216076110
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