Probabilistic seasonal forecasts of North Atlantic atmospheric circulation using complex systems modelling and comparison with dynamical models

Abstract Dynamical seasonal forecast models are improving with time but tend to underestimate the amplitude of atmospheric circulation variability and to have lower skill in predicting summer variability than in winter. Here, we construct Nonlinear AutoRegressive Moving Average models with eXogenous...

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Principais autores:	Yiming Sun, Ian Simpson, Hua‐Liang Wei, Edward Hanna
格式:	Artigo
語言:	Inglês
出版:	Wiley 2024-01-01
叢編:	Meteorological Applications
主題:	ensemble forecasts forecasting machine learning miscellaneous NARMAX NorthAtlantic atmospheric circulation
在線閱讀:	https://doi.org/10.1002/met.2178
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