Aso volcano, Japan: assessing the 100-year probability of a new caldera-forming eruption based on expert judgements with Bayes Net and Importance Sampling uncertainty analysis

Abstract The Aso-4 explosive eruption on Kyushu, Japan, 89,500 years ago was one of the biggest eruptions in the last one hundred millennia, with a magnitude of approximately M8. Modern society requires the likelihood of natural events with potentially disastrous consequences to be evaluated, even i...

وصف كامل

التفاصيل البيبلوغرافية

المؤلفون الرئيسيون:	Willy Aspinall, R. Stephen J. Sparks, Brittain E. Hill, Antonio Costa, Charles Connor, Hirohito Inakura, Toshiaki Hasenaka, Masaya Miyoshi, Koji Kiyosugi, Tomohiro Tsuji, Masashi Ushioda
التنسيق:	Artigo
اللغة:	Inglês
منشور في:	BMC 2023-07-01
سلاسل:	Journal of Applied Volcanology
الموضوعات:	Aso volcano Japan Probabilistic volcanic hazard assessment Super-eruption probability 100-year forecast Expert elicitation
الوصول للمادة أونلاين:	https://doi.org/10.1186/s13617-023-00131-8
الوسوم:	إضافة وسم لا توجد وسوم, كن أول من يضع وسما على هذه التسجيلة!