An IRT forecasting model: linking proper scoring rules to item response theory

This article proposes an Item Response Theoretical (IRT) forecasting model that incorporates proper scoring rules and provides evaluations of forecasters’ expertise in relation to the features of the specific questions they answer. We illustrate the model using geopolitical forecasts obtained by the...

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Үндсэн зохиолчид:	Yuanchao Emily Bo, David V. Budescu, Charles Lewis, Philip E. Tetlock, Barbara Mellers
Формат:	Artigo
Хэл сонгох:	Inglês
Хэвлэсэн:	Cambridge University Press 2017-03-01
Цуврал:	Judgment and Decision Making
Нөхцлүүд:	IRT Forecasting Brier scores Proper Scoring Rules Good Judgment Project Gibbs sampling
Онлайн хандалт:	https://www.cambridge.org/core/product/identifier/S1930297500005647/type/journal_article
Шошгууд:	Шошго нэмэх Шошго байхгүй, Энэхүү баримтыг шошголох эхний хүн болох!