Bayesian predictive distribution California DBSCAN algorithm New Zealand clustering corner magnitude coulomb failure stress earthquake catalogs earthquake clustering earthquake forecasting earthquake forecasting model earthquake likelihood models earthquake simulator earthquake-prone areas epidemic type aftershock sequence model extreme value distribution foreshocks and aftershocks global seismicity high seismicity criteria machine learning magnitude-frequency distribution markovian arrival processes n/a northern and central Apennines numerical modeling pattern recognition precursors preparatory phase seismic cycle seismic prediction